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Data from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Metaculus. Updates on refresh. Arbitrage detection is approximate and based on keyword matching.

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Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

Will Trump finish his second term?

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]